A Quick Service Restaurant chain was on the verge of cutting radio. Then, a Media Mix Model revealed its social media ads were costing more than the meals they were selling, while radio enjoyed more than three times ROI. Guess what came back?
The study by analytics firm Seeda, in partnership with Supermetrics, shows why that instinct is costing brands real money.
The study analyzed an Australian QSR chain’s full media spend across 20+ channels over a 60-day engagement, using a custom MMM model validated to a 97% fit between predicted and actual sales. The brand had planned to cut radio before commissioning the work. After the model was complete, AM/FM radio was reinstated and grew into a cornerstone of the media strategy.
Cumulus Media’s Westwood One Audio Active Group translated the findings to the US market using MRI-Simmons audience data.
When Seeda ranked every channel by return on ad spend, AM/FM radio came in third, behind only email and paid search, and ahead of paid social ($3.40), display ($3.15), TV ($2.85), and out-of-home ($2.10). The optimal spending zone sits between $25,000 and $35,000 per week, but even at $5,000 per week, radio returned $4.80 on every dollar.
US MRI-Simmons data reinforces why: the heaviest AM/FM radio listeners are 11 percent more likely than the average American adult to visit a QSR nine or more times per month, and 11 percent more likely to spend over $200 per month at fast-food restaurants. Heavy TV viewers, by contrast, index below average on QSR spending.
The Seeda model found that AM/FM radio’s sales impact persists for up to three weeks after a campaign ends, and that consistent spending builds cumulatively rather than just additively. This is precisely why the Australian QSR’s earlier testing failed to show clear performance: the measurement window was too short and the methodology was wrong for the channel. When the brand leaned into radio at meaningful levels, marketing-contributed revenue climbed roughly 30%, and year-over-year sales rose 5% through a difficult seasonal period.
Over the trailing 12 months, Meta ads cost this QSR $49 per transaction. AM/FM radio cost $18. But when the study measured cost per transaction over the most recent two months, capturing radio’s accumulated awareness effects, radio dropped to $11 while Meta climbed to $58, exceeding the average value of a fast-food order.
This story out of Australia is a template. QSR brands, among other verticals, are making the same measurement mistake on both sides of the Pacific right now. The US radio industry’s job is to make clear that the measurement gap has been driving the cuts.
