With “economic headwinds” being one of radio’s defining phrases of 2023, it was fitting for Forecast 2024 to open with “Economic Forecasting: Broadcast Revenue Trends and Expectations.” Moderated by Miller Kaplan partner Andrew Rosen, the panel included Bottom Line Marketing CEO Jackie Brooks, joined by MAGNA EVP Vincent LeTang, BIA Advisory Services VP Nicole Ovadia, and Silver Oak Political president Steve Passwaiter.
LeTang started the discussion by highlighting the macroeconomic strength amidst micro stresses. Despite concerns about a recession 9 months ago, the economy showed resilience with expected GDP growth exceeding 1% in the fourth quarter. The car market’s recovery also plays a key role in this positive outlook. For 2024, he identified the top ad spend verticals as travel (11%), tech (7%), and pharma (6%), noting a decline only in TV/film and restaurants sectors.
Ovadia brought attention to the expected cautiousness in ad spending due to the upcoming election, while Passwaiter emphasized the significant role of political advertising, predicting that 55-60% of every dollar raised by political candidates, potentially amounting to $20 billion, will go to ads. This is especially notable given the expected closeness of the elections and the possibility of Democrats spending more, potentially increasing this percentage.
Passwaiter also mentioned the shift in politicians’ preference for video advertising, advising local sales forces to utilize what they have, considering the significance of issues like reproductive rights being decided at the state level. He also pointed out that traditional TV may not be the most effective medium for ad spend in certain areas, suggesting that other options might yield better results.
Brooks discussed the potential growth in the jewelry sector, emphasizing the effectiveness of traditional media when combined with the right creative and media mix. She recommended investing in passionate account executives. Ovadia, on the other hand, was more cautious about insurance agencies, expecting flat spending at best, while foreseeing growth in legal advertising, though this might be affected by political advertising.
Overall, the panelists were optimistic about local shopping and the potential ad growth for electric vehicles, while LeTang was concerned about whether premium brands might return to traditional media. The panelists unanimously agreed on the increasing importance of Hispanic media properties, emphasizing the need to fight for a greater share of the ad market.
While challenges exist, there is an underlying optimism for growth in several sectors in 2024, with a clear emphasis on the evolving nature of advertising mediums and the strategic importance of understanding and tapping into the right markets.
