BIA Advisory Services is framing its 2026 local advertising outlook around a single premise broadcasters will recognize immediately: the money is still local, but sellers who can prove results will win more of it, especially as OTT and CTV become standard in sales packages.
In a new Leading Local Insights episode tied to BIA’s 2026 Trends Report, the firm points to a $182 billion local advertising opportunity and argues that fragmentation, measurement expectations, and inventory pressure from politics and major events will reshape how local media is packaged and sold.
For radio, the biggest takeaway is not that the forecast is “digital-first.” It is that local advertisers are increasingly buying outcomes, and audio has to be positioned inside outcome-based plans alongside video and place-based media, especially as connected TV absorbs a growing share of local video budgets and national brands shift more dollars into market-level performance.
BIA forecasts local CTV advertising at roughly $3.6 billion in 2026, excluding political, up about 10% from an estimated $3.3 billion in 2025.
More important for sellers building cross-platform plans, BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey says CTV’s share of local TV-set spending climbs from under 14% in 2024 to nearly 19% in 2026. That shift matters to radio because it changes the default “video layer” many buyers will want in a local plan, and it raises the bar for how audio packages justify their role in reach, frequency, and performance.
In BIA’s framing, the opportunity for local sellers is not choosing between linear and streaming. It is orchestrating video across screens and using each medium for a different job: broad reach where it still performs, tighter targeting where signals and optimization are strongest, and performance layers that can tie to concrete KPIs.
Ducey explicitly describes a market where marketers are “going a little bit crazy” trying to find audiences across proliferating channels and where the seller’s value is simplification, alignment, and measurement. For audio sales teams, that is an opening: radio can be sold as the stabilizing reach and frequency layer that lowers cost per incremental audience and makes the video spend work harder, provided it is packaged and reported in a way buyers understand.
The way to prioritize that in 2026 is to sell audio’s role in three places BIA repeatedly returns to: cross-platform reach, geographic relevance, and point-of-decision influence.
First is cross-platform reach. BIA’s analysts repeatedly describe audiences spread across more screens and advertisers trying to keep brand messaging consistent while also chasing performance. Audio’s advantage is scale and repetition without the same creative wear-out problem buyers associate with high-frequency video retargeting.
Second is geographic relevance. Ducey talks about geotargeting lifts and the ability to reach consumers “where they live,” including geographically relevant content. Radio has long owned that narrative, but in 2026, it has to be supported with modern proof: market-by-market targeting, mid-flight optimization, and attribution proxies that can be shared alongside digital video reporting.
Third is point-of-decision influence, where BIA’s out-of-home discussion becomes directly useful for audio. Out-of-home is framed as a non-skippable, proximity-driven reinforcement channel that pairs well with CTV and social by adding frequency in the real world. Audio can be positioned similarly, particularly in increasingly commute-heavy markets where radio’s daily routine use complements place-based media.
Where BIA’s forecast becomes especially actionable for radio revenue strategy is in the verticals it elevates.
BIA Senior Director Mark Dugan identifies three categories “jumping off the page” for 2026. Real estate is forecast to grow about 5.8% in local ad spend as interest rates ease and the buyer journey becomes more online and research-heavy, with marketers thinking “digital first” and leaning into search, listings platforms, social, and video.
Leisure and recreation is projected to grow about 4.3% in 2026, with Dugan pointing to online gambling, shifting travel behaviors, and consumer demand for experiences. Lastly, restaurants are forecast to grow about 3.7% in local ad spend, with Dugan describing value-seeking diners, weaker loyalty, and pressure to “win that next visit,” pushing more dollars into social and CTV with tight geographic targeting.
The other major revenue pressure point in BIA’s outlook is political. BIA Vice President of Forecasting Senan Mele says 2026 political advertising will be intense but unevenly distributed, concentrated in competitive markets. He also forecasts roughly $3.9 billion in political TV OTA spending, calling it the largest political medium by a wide margin, and emphasizes that campaigns now plan OTA alongside CTV and YouTube as a unified video strategy.
As video fragments across linear, CTV, and digital platforms and political demand tightens inventory in key markets, BIA’s outlook suggests radio’s value increasingly rests on how effectively it is integrated, measured, and positioned within broader performance-driven plans.
