After a stretch of declines and cautious spending, good news is on the horizon for radio. BIA Advisory Services’ first look into 2026 suggests over-the-air radio is poised for a rebound with political dollars setting the stage and digital growth adding advantage.
In a webinar with Marketron CEO Jimshade Chaudhari, BIA Advisory Services VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele offered a first look at what local media spending could look like in 2026, and it’s refreshingly positive for radio and digital platforms alike.
On the heels of a pessimistic update to 2025 spending, radio OTA revenue is projected to grow 1.83% year over year in 2026, reversing 2025’s modest declines, while radio digital is forecast to climb even more.
BIA forecasts $7.9 billion in total political advertising across local media in 2026, making it one of the largest cycles in recent history. With 435 House seats, 35 Senate races, 36 governorships, and 30 attorney general offices on the ballot, political campaigns are expected to compete aggressively for local reach.
Chaudhari said the opportunity is too large to overlook and urged broadcasters to prepare now by refining inventory strategies and bundling OTA, digital, and CTV offerings.
Even beyond political spending, the growth trajectory for radio digital and streaming video platforms continues to strengthen. BIA projects radio digital revenue will increase by 4.5% in 2025, excluding political ads, and accelerate to 5.01% growth in 2026.
Even with modest declines in 2025, radio remains one of the most efficient local advertising channels, delivering significant returns. According to Nielsen data, advertisers receive a $10 return on ad spend for every dollar invested in radio.
Looking ahead to the 2025 holiday season, BIA projects U.S. retail sales will rise 1.2% year over year. Advertisers are expected to launch campaigns earlier than ever, starting in October, to capture early shoppers ahead of a later-than-usual Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday.
The holiday season will serve as a lead-in to the heavier spending environment of 2026, where the combination of election-year intensity and cross-platform momentum positions broadcasters to capture a larger share of local ad budgets.
The full webinar is available via Marketron.
