The US advertising industry is showing signs of renewed momentum heading into the second half of 2025, with MAGNA upgrading its full-year growth forecast. But even with the good news, AM/FM radio owners will not have much to be happy about in the report.
After starting the year with economic warning signs, including a sharp drop in consumer confidence and ongoing inflation in core spending categories, MAGNA had cut its 2025 projection in the Spring from 4.9% to 4.3%. The updated Summer report sees the firm nudging that forecast back up to 4.6%, fueled by a strong first quarter and accelerating digital spending.
But while digital platforms surge, AM/FM radio remains stuck in neutral. MAGNA’s outlook for terrestrial radio holds steady at a 3.2% year-over-year decline, unchanged from the Spring and echoing its 2024 performance.
Radio’s projected total revenue for 2025 stands at $12.2 billion, down from $12.6 billion in 2024. The sector continues to face soft demand in historically strong verticals like automotive, quick-service restaurants, and consumer packaged goods, categories still under economic and structural strain.
It could be worse, for AM/FM, though, compared to other legacy platforms. Traditional media as a whole is expected to drop 7% year-over-year, when factoring in television and print. Adjusted for the absence of high-spending cyclical events like the Olympics and presidential elections, the decline is less severe, around 1.2%, but still notable in the face of digital’s growth.
Digital Pure Players are expected to climb 10% in the U.S. to $297 billion in 2025, driven by gains in retail search (+14%), social media (+12%), and short-form video (+8%).
Within audio, digital formats are faring modestly better. Digital audio ad sales are projected to grow 3.7% to $3.2 billion, while podcasting is set to rise 9% to $2.7 billion. While still a bright spot, podcast growth is slowing from the double-digit increases seen in prior years.
MAGNA’s global ad forecast paints a similar picture: a 4.9% increase in 2025 to $979 billion, following last year’s 10.3% surge. The firm expects global ad revenues to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, driven by the return of major events like the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and U.S. midterms.
MAGNA EVP Vincent Létang stated, “The moderation has been fairly mild to date, with digital media showing particularly strong in the first quarter. We believe the marketing industry has learned from the COVID period and now understands the importance of consistent communication and balanced media strategies, especially amidst consumer uncertainty.”
