Data: Radio Outpaces TV in Reach With Spend At Critical Mass

A growing body of evidence is making the case that radio deserves a more central role in modern media planning, and it begins with reach. A new analysis from Nielsen shows that AM/FM radio builds monthly audience reach more efficiently than television across all levels of gross rating point (GRP) investment.

The findings compare adult 18+ reach percentages as monthly GRPs increase, covering both AM/FM radio and broadcast, cable, and syndicated TV.

Sourced from the Nielsen Spring 2024 Nationwide Survey and Nielsen Comspoint 2024, the chart reveals a consistently wide gap in favor of radio. At approximately 100 GRPs, AM/FM reaches nearly 60% of adults, while TV stays below 40%. By 300 GRPs, radio nears 80%, whereas TV tops out around 60%. Even at higher GRP levels, AM/FM continues to deliver incremental reach, while TV’s curve begins to flatten.

This empirical evidence supports the arguments of media strategist John Fix, who has long maintained that radio’s value is often obscured, not because it underperforms, but because it is routinely underfunded.

Fix, the former architect of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble’s return to radio, has partnered with the Cumulus Media/Westwood One Audio Active Group to reframe how advertisers view Media Mix Modeling. His key insight: weak ROI metrics for audio frequently stem from brands investing too little to see meaningful impact.

Fix’s recommendation is to shift from asking “Did radio work?” to “Did this execution of radio work?” That change in mindset opens the door for strategic optimization, including analysis of creative, dayparts, and format mixes to determine what’s truly effective.

A major issue, he argues, is the overreliance on planned media weights in MMMs. These create a “smoothing effect” that reduces week-to-week variance, making it harder for models to detect causal links between ad exposure and sales. Instead, Fix advocates for using as-run data – the actual GRPs delivered each week, which captures real fluctuations and enables more accurate attribution.

Fix points to response curve data from Nielsen and In4mation Insights, showing that as investment in AM/FM radio increases, ROI grows steadily until it eventually plateaus. But when brands spend too little, common for those testing or re-entering the radio space, the response curve shows negligible return. The issue isn’t that radio doesn’t work. It’s that it was never truly activated at scale.

Fix also reminds marketers to factor in product pricing when interpreting ROI. CPGs tend to show lower ROIs due to their low price points, while services or retailers with high average cart sizes demonstrate much higher returns.

Ultimately, Fix’s analysis is a call to rethink radio’s role in media strategy, not as a niche support channel, but as a core component of brand-building when funded and measured properly.