As financial fears tied to tariffs and other political factors surge, BIA Advisory Services has updated its US local advertising revenue forecast for 2025 – and the outcome may not be particularly soothing to radio broadcasters.
While the latest forecast reflects modest adjustments, with non-political ad revenue raised 0.03% and total revenue, including political ads, up 0.1% from previous estimates, driven primarily by digital ad growth.
The latest forecast projects US local advertising revenue to reach $171 billion in 2025, excluding political spending, marking a 6.1% increase over 2024. Including political ads, total revenue is expected to hit $171.4 billion, a slight 0.5% decline compared to last year’s elevated political ad spend.
The analysis of radio advertising revenue in particular represents an even more mixed outlook for the sector. When political spending is included, total radio OTA and digital revenue is expected to drop by 4.9%. Over-the-air revenue takes the largest hit, falling by 6%. On the other hand, digital radio shows a slight increase, with a 0.1% gain. Without political spending, a smaller decline is projected for total radio OTA and digital revenue, down by 0.8%. This represents an adjusted decline from BIA’s initial forecast in July.
The trend of digital media outpacing traditional advertising continues outside of AM/FM, spurred by local advertisers’ growing adoption of Connected TV and Over-the-Top platforms.
The strongest sector growth is expected to continue in Real Estate (9.3%), Restaurants (9.2%), and Retail (6.8%). Education and Automotive are also predicted to see substantial gains, each rising by 5.0%. The forecast also highlights that despite being an off-election year, 2025 will still see significant political advertising from markets with special elections and gubernatorial races.
BIA Advisory Services VP of Forecasting and Analysis Nicole Ovadia noted, “Our latest forecast indicates that local advertising is showing resilience, despite the ongoing changes in the economic landscape. Although we expect core advertising to remain stable, we’ve adjusted our outlook to account for various market factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment and significant changes in media consumption patterns that are driving digital growth.”
BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey said, “Key verticals are showing notable shifts in 2025. While what we term the ‘3Rs’ – Restaurants, Retail, and Real Estate – lead growth, we see interesting opportunities in Auto and Education. Auto dealers are likely to revive aggressive financing promotions when interest rates ease, and educational institutions are increasing their digital presence, particularly through geo-targeted campaigns, to connect with price-sensitive students who might not have considered nearby educational options before.”
BIA’s detailed forecasts for all local radio markets are available through its BIA ADVantage platform or for purchase directly through the company.
