First, it was the three-minute rule. Now Nielsen has decided to extend the length of time a PPM panelist can be active to three (or so) years.
This is likely due to two factors: the difficulty ALL research companies have in recruiting sample (how many unknown numbers do you answer?), and that it saves the company money.
So, what should you be looking at and monitoring as we move forward with this adjusted reality?
The biggest takeaway is that your heaviest panelists are even more important. We frequently see a small number of panelists being responsible for a large percentage of a station’s AQH. If you have a heavy female listener who contributes 10-15% to your total week AQH, you want to be aware of them and make sure they are very, very happy.
How do you do that?
I’ll use the M word – market. There are ways to dive deeply into your data that can help you pinpoint these opportunities. The same holds true for your competition. (Shameless plug: Research Director Inc.’s Exact Age and Hot Zip reports, along with our micro-targeting capabilities, will enable you to do that.)
This change also presents both an opportunity and a challenge. We see panelists “age out” of the 25-54 demo all the time. Now, that 52-year-old panelist might have less than two years left in the money demo. Conversely, that 23-year-old will come online before their time expires.
Of course, this assumes that 36% of the panelists continue to go full term. That is the overall figure Nielsen quoted. We do not know how this breaks down by age, gender, ethnicity, or market. As we learned with the three-minute rule, your mileage WILL vary.
The eBook lists the percentage of change in the installed panel every month. It usually hovers in the 8-10% range. Keep an eye on that to see if that changes.
You pay Nielsen a lot of money. But you do not pay for ratings, you pay for sample. It is very important that you track sample indexes, especially in your key demos and geographies. As a reminder, Nielsen’s preferred index range for samples is between 90 and 110. The acceptable range is 80-120. Anything outside of those ranges, especially on the low side, is a problem.
A few examples to consider. If your 6+ in-tab sample is delivering as promised, but the Men 25-54 portion is insufficient, how quickly will Nielsen be able to add sample to that cell? If your ethnic sample is adequate but is also soft on listening (we have seen that), you might be dealing with that issue for another year.
We have all lived the movie where a station is on fire until one day it isn’t. That huge household timed out, and the numbers cratered. This had nothing to do with the on-air product. In this new Nielsen world order, it might take longer for your station to recover.
The change to the three-year rule could lead to a more stable panel. However, it does not address the main issue of increasing the sample size (which is a non-starter). This adjustment establishes a new standard that should be observed over time.
