Is flat to slightly up or slightly down still the norm for radio? That’s been radio’s revenue reality for years now — even as the economy booms, digital revenue explodes and podcasting revenue lurks. At Forecast 2019, Wednesday, MAGNA EVP Vincent Letang said overall ad revenue should increase 2.4% in 2019. His prediction for radio? Down 5%. So where’s all the money going?
Letang predicted digital would increase over 15% next year while every other medium will take a hit in 2019. National TV will be down 1%, local TV down 5%, and print down 17%, according to Letang. So despite the recent cries that digital may not be working for big brands, it appears they are still writing big digital checks.
Katz Media Group CEO Mark Gray was more upbeat about the industry. Gray said 2018 for the radio sector is finishing on a high note. “Local business is continuing to improve after a slow start in the first half of the year. National spot was up slightly the first half of the year and is now showing great strength the last few months of 2018 with core business up double digits. Additionally network radio continues to be strong and will end the year with solid growth. On top of all this, radio just had a record-breaking year with political revenues significantly exceeding the 2014 cycle.”
Katz is excited about carrying this momentum into 2019. Expectations are high and the audio story has never been stronger. With the abundance of new data and tools to showcase radio’s effectiveness, we believe radio is being rediscovered by advertisers and agencies. This will enable us to grow our traditional business while expanding digital opportunities with online audio and podcasting.
Other thoughts from the financial panel:
- Radio still needs to educate buyers about the powerful reach of radio, especially New York buyers in their 20s who don’t drive to work.
- Having iHeartMedia and Cumulus out of bankruptcy will be a good thing for the industry.
- Political ad revenue will come in 40% higher than what the industry took in back in 2016, the last mid-term non-presidential election year.
- Automotive advertising will not come back any time soon.
- There is a huge opportunity for radio in podcasting.
- Radio has reputation of being old and the industry needs to work on changing that.
