Right when it may need it the most, radio’s combined revenue outlook for 2026 just got a lift. BIA Advisory Services has bumped its US local advertising forecast to $184.5 billion, now projecting that over-the-air and digital radio will together clear $12.4 billion.
The research firm projects total local ad revenue will grow 8.1% year-over-year from 2025, up from its prior estimate of $181.7 billion issued in Q4 2025. The revision excludes political spending at $176.1 billion.
Radio over-the-air is projected to reach $10.08 billion in 2026, a 1.8% gain from $9.91 billion in 2025. Radio digital is forecast at a 5.0% increase of $2.38 billion, with political spending providing an additional tailwind across the midterm cycle. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in total local political spending in 2026, with radio among the beneficiaries alongside broadcast television, cable, CTV/OTT, and direct mail.
The upward revision is driven by stronger-than-expected mobile and social performance, CTV/OTT expansion, political spending, and advertising technology gains. BIA also updated its methodology this cycle, breaking out Digital Out of Home as a distinct category rather than grouping it with traditional OOH, a move the firm says reflects the growing role of programmatic and location-based media in local campaigns.
BIA identifies real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services as key long-term growth verticals, with total local advertising projected to exceed $222 billion by 2030.
BIA VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele stated, “Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over-the-top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets. At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable, and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”
BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey said, “The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy. Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”
The full forecast, extended through 2030 and now spanning 18 media channels and 96 verticals, is available to clients through BIA’s ADVantage platform.
