Another quarter, another upward nudge. BIA Advisory Services has again revised its 2026 local advertising outlook for radio, and the driver hasn’t changed since its last update: a heated midterm election cycle continuing to funnel big dollars into local media.
BIA now projects $186.1 billion in total 2026 US local advertising revenue, an increase of $1.6 billion, or 0.9%, over the firm’s prior estimate. In April, BIA raised its 2026 outlook to $184.5 billion, also on the wings of political advertising.
For radio specifically, over-the-air revenue is projected to reach $9.79 billion, a 1.6% increase from 2025, while digital radio climbs 0.8% to $2.41 billion. Combined, radio’s over-the-air and digital revenue account for 6.5% of total local ad spending, or roughly $12.2 billion. Strip political dollars out of the equation, though, and over-the-air falls 1.3% to $9.49 billion, and digital radio drops 2.1% to $2.34 billion.
The underlying softness tracks with what BIA has been signaling for months. Last December, BIA’s Forecasting and Analyst Teams named radio’s digital extension one of the defining local-ad trends for 2026, pointing to programmatic audio, FM zone targeting, and in-car digital listening as growth areas for station groups working to offset softer over-the-air demand. In January, BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey went further, arguing that Connected TV was absorbing a growing share of local video budgets and that audio sellers would need to fit inside outcome-based, cross-platform plans rather than compete as a standalone medium.
As of the latest updates, digital channels now hold 55.7% of total local ad spending versus 44.3% for traditional media, according to BIA. Mobile remains the largest single channel at $45.6 billion, or 24.5% of the total, followed by direct mail at $38.3 billion and PC/laptop at $35.4 billion. CTV/OTT posted the sharpest growth of any channel tracked, climbing 76.3% year over year to $5.9 billion, with political spending again the primary driver.
Looking ahead, BIA’s first look at 2027 projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion, essentially flat compared to 2026. About $9 billion in underlying, nonpolitical growth is expected to nearly offset an $8.6 billion drop in political spending as the election cycle winds down, with political dollars projected to fall to roughly $1.1 billion in the 2027 off-cycle year.
BIA Vice President of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele said, “Political spending will decline sharply after the midterms, but the underlying nonpolitical market has continued to grow and should offset much of that decline. We expect the overall local advertising market to remain essentially flat in 2027, with continued growth across core categories helping to support the market in an off-cycle year.”
Beneath that stable topline, several categories are projected to grow well above the market average. Real estate leads at 9.8%, followed by leisure and recreation at 5.9%, automotive at 5.1%, restaurants and food at 4.4%, and financial services at 3.7%.
BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey said, “2027 makes clear that the underlying growth in local advertising is broader and more durable than the political cycle alone would suggest. Political spending has accelerated the market and delivered a strong two-year period for broadcast and streaming video, but the more important story is what happens beneath that surge. Core categories continue to expand their investments across an increasingly diverse media ecosystem. That sustained, multi-platform demand, and the media channels that capture it, will shape the next phase of local media.”
