A mix of challenges and opportunities paint a complex picture for the year ahead for US broadcasters, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence‘s 2025 Trends report, full of shifting ad budgets, intensifying competition, and the potentiality of coming deregulation.
The report projects a 9.3% decline in total advertising revenue in 2025 for the US broadcast station industry, dropping to $32.83 billion from $36.19 billion in 2024. This dip is attributed to the absence of election and Olympic advertising. With core ad verticals like automotive, retail, and travel still reeling from inflation and high interest rates, pharmaceuticals, telecom, and professional services are likely to remain bright spots, outperforming other categories.
Radio ad revenue is expected to decline by 3.3% in 2025, reaching $10.86 billion, with longer-term projections showing minimal recovery, stabilizing at $10.80 billion by 2029.
A bright spot for AM/FM? Local advertising continues to outperform national ad markets, benefiting from deep community ties. However, digital-native platforms are rapidly siphoning ad budgets large and small, as content increasingly migrates from linear to streaming formats.
As for streaming audio, S&P Global Market Intelligence says podcasting has emerged as a standout segment, projected to become the largest ad revenue growth driver in the US market. Monthly podcast listeners grew by 13% year-over-year in 2024, reaching an estimated 135 million. Edison Research reported that 47% of the US population aged 12 and older listened to a podcast in the past month, a five-point increase from 2023. Familiarity with podcasting also climbed to 84%.
Kagan estimates podcast ad revenue grew by 19% in 2024, totaling $862.8 million. Growth is expected to accelerate to 22% in 2025, surpassing $1 billion for the first time and projected to exceed $2 billion by 2032. By 2034, podcasting is expected to account for 15.9% of total U.S. online ad revenue, a significant increase from 5.7% in 2024.
Despite its impressive growth, the podcasting industry is now undergoing strong consolidation following years of heavy investment. Spotify, for instance, scaled back its exclusive podcast deals in 2023 as the industry seeks sustainable monetization strategies to maintain the medium’s upward trajectory.
The US broadcast industry’s merger and acquisition activity has remained subdued over the past four years, impacted by a more regulated environment under the Biden administration, weaker corporate earnings, and rising borrowing costs. Total radio deal volumes dropped to $303 million in 2023, with 2024 continuing the trend of limited large-scale transactions.
Yet, S&P is optimistic about a potential rebound in 2025, with expectations of deregulation under a possible Trump presidency and a Republican-controlled Congress and FCC. “Intense competition could see a rise in mergers and deal-making, especially in the US where media firms are firmly focused on profitability and deregulation could be on the rise,” commented S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Research Analyst Seth Shafer.
For now, radio stations are focusing on maintaining local market strength rather than pursuing national consolidation. The emphasis on digital integration and smaller, strategic transactions is seen as crucial for attracting investment and adapting to evolving consumer preferences.
