As is the opening tradition at Forecast, economic analysts and advertising experts set the tone for the day in a discussion about the future of broadcast revenue amid changing market dynamics as the industry heads into a year without political ad spend.
Moderated by Andrew Rosen, Partner/CPA at Miller Kaplan, the discussion included insights from veteran media buyer Lucas Cridland, Kagan Principal Analyst Justin Nielson, BIA Advisory VP of Forecasting & Analysis Nicole Ovadia, and GroupM US Chief Investment Officer Matt Sweeney.
When asked about the economy, panelists expressed cautious optimism in the wake of the presidential election. Ovadia described 2024 as a “weird and difficult year,” citing strong political advertising but sluggish results elsewhere. She highlighted a surprising trend: initial concerns about an overly aggressive 2025 forecast have now eased as projections seem achievable.
Cridland noted that budgets remain heavily tied to media performance, with performance-based clients showing more confidence.
Nielson pointed to the U.S. economy leading other developed nations, forecasting a 2.7% growth rate in 2024. However, inflation risks remain a concern, with increased investment reflecting strong consumer demand.
Discussing the impact of the 2024 election, Ovadia said BIA’s $11.7 billion forecast looks on track, though the distribution of spending shifted. Connected TV and over-the-top platforms captured top dollars. Radio maintained its typical share. Linear TV grew but lagged behind total political ad growth as cable saw significant declines.
The shift in audience behavior continues to drive investment strategies. Clients are following younger demographics into digital and streaming, per Sweeney. However, Cridland emphasized that clients are less focused on specific media channels and more on engagement levels. He added how if the campaign meets their criteria, they don’t care where it comes from. Cridland says radio can attract digitally native clients if it demonstrates effective attribution.
Sweeney acknowledged challenges in connecting analytics across platforms like YouTube and Meta, while Ovadia predicted decreased brand loyalty in 2025. She noted radio’s growing role in targeting competitors’ customers while digital focuses on loyal audiences.
Panelists also identified key categories poised for growth and challenges.
Nielson described the automotive sector as “very challenged,” with high prices and interest rates dampening demand. Both Cridland and Sweeney stressed the need for aggressive marketing to drive customers back to dealerships. In the same area, Cridland pointed to auto insurance as a potential growth area.
Ovadia noted hospitals are evolving into regional groups, creating opportunities for cooperative advertising. She also highlighted the “three R’s” of restaurants, retail, and real estate, previously brought up in BIA’s 2025 forecast. Nielson added that urgent care and home healthcare are ripe for increased ad spend.
Sweeney spotlighted growth in women’s sports, sharing that GroupM saw nine large marketers significantly increase their investments, with 23 doubling their spend, resulting in strong brand lift.
Looking ahead, panelists voiced both concerns and opportunities. Nielson is most worried about the rebound of core advertising after political ad dollars subside. Both he and Ovadia see deregulation as a potential boon for broadcasters. Cridland and Sweeney highlighted challenges and opportunities in CTV.
The panel closed with a consensus that 2025 will bring transformative changes, from evolving audience behaviors to the impact of a new presidential administration on media markets.
