The US broadcast station industry is projected to see a 9.3% increase in total advertising revenue, reaching $36.19 billion in 2024. While TV outperformed radio in the total results, AM/FM has a significant leg up that will likely become even more pronounced in 2025.
According to the newly released S&P Global Market Intelligence Radio & TV Annual Outlook, the industry growth is largely driven by record political ad spending in the presidential election year on both the radio and TV sides. Despite this, radio is projected to see a 3.7% decline in ad revenue to $11.24 billion in 2024, as campaigns directed the lion’s share of ad buys to television.
So what’s the good news for radio?
Unlike broadcast TV, radio continues to maintain a strong digital presence, which has been crucial as national advertisers increasingly shift budgets to digital platforms. Over the 2024-2029 period, radio ad revenue is expected to contract to $10.08 billion, with national spot ads declining at 5.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and local spot ads shrinking by 3.6% CAGR.
However, digital ad revenue for radio shows growth potential, with a 5.9% CAGR, helping to offset the declines in traditional ad spending.
In contrast, TV station ad revenue is projected to decrease at a CAGR of 2.1% over the next five years, from a high of $25.57 billion in 2028 to $22.39 billion in the nonelection year of 2029. National spot revenue is expected to decline by 5.0% CAGR, while local spot ad revenue shows modest growth of 1.5% CAGR.
While both radio and TV stations are experiencing shifts, the radio industry is seeing a more significant transition towards streaming audio and podcasting. Radio’s digital ad growth contrasts with the declines in traditional ad segments, suggesting a shift in how listeners and advertisers engage with the medium.
At the same time, TV’s ad revenue remains buoyed by major events, such as elections and the Olympics, but faces a long-term decline, particularly in national advertising.
What are verticals to watch? S&P Global Market Intelligence Principal Analyst Justin Nielson says, “Core ad categories, including automotive, retail and travel, have continued to see softness due to high interest rates and inflationary pressures dampening consumer spending on big-ticket items. Pharmaceuticals, telecom and professional services continue to outperform other ad categories.”
