Is Your Prebuttal Ready?

(By Steve Allan) As we close the door on ’24, we look forward to the biggest change to radio ratings since the beginning of the PPM era. On January 9, Nielsen will be implementing the new three-minute rule.

There will be a ton of new data to parse over the next several months but one thing is certain – when the new numbers start rolling out the week of February 24th, your advertisers that use ratings as currency will have a lot of questions.

The most significant challenge we will face as an industry will be holding the line on revenue. Are you going to play defense when the questions arise, or will you have your “prebuttal” ready? Here are a few things to consider:

• In real life, the amount of people listening to your station on January 8 will be essentially the same as those being rated on January 9. 
• New audience is not being created, it is just being more accurately recorded and reported.
• The expectation is that this shift will increase audience levels by 20-24%. Your mileage may vary.
• We do not know – for certain – which demos, dayparts, and formats will receive the most lift. The expectation is that this will more dramatically affect younger skewing formats. However, we do not know how dramatic that change will be when compared to other demos/formats.
• This new threshold brings radio closer to digital and streaming standards, which are often credited with impressions that are far less than the new three-minute standard.
• Because this change only affects the ratings in PPM markets, it will add challenges for buying radio because the goals of a given campaign may need to be different in PPM markets compared to Diary markets.
• By including shorter listening moments, this methodology change captures more ad impressions, making radio more competitive in attribution models compared to other media.

One of the big challenges for your sales team will be convincing your clients NOT to decrease their radio budgets. Advertisers will see that their current spend level that achieves, say, 100 points, actually yielded 120 points under the 3-minute rule. Here’s where the “prebuttal” comes in.

First, assuming that their advertising is working, a cut in budget for a schedule with fewer spots will yield less reach and fewer impressions in real life. Advertisers will need to reassess their reach, frequency, and GRP goals to match reality. A reality that is not being created but has finally been revealed.

Second, your clients have been receiving a 20% bonus all along! This “value added” has amounted to free advertising. For years. 

Third, the snarky ones will question the value of three minutes worth of listening. There are two possible responses to that. Ask them if their current spots could fall within a three-minute window. Then, ask them what the definition of a digital impression is. (Hint: it is dramatically shorter than three minutes).

Finally, and this is a bit of a Pollyanna take, this is an opportunity to de-clutter your air. All those added mentions and questionable promotions that are generally given as added value could be cleaned up. Or, and this is what will happen, that inventory will just be sold to another client. 

You’ve likely workshopped all the possibilities already. However, as an industry, without a prepared “prebuttal,” we run the risk of lower demand on our inventory because – on paper – advertisers don’t need to run as many spots to achieve the prior campaign metrics. That may be their perception but it is not reality. 

This essay is part of a series titled “The Power of Radio.” To view past articles, visit The Ratings Experts at Research Director, Inc. online here.

Steve Allan is the Programming Research Consultant at Research Director, Inc. He can be reached at 410-295-6619 x25 or by email. Research Director, Inc. offers consulting services to media companies to help them grow their audience, ratings, and revenue. Read Research Director, Inc.’s Radio Ink archives here.