(By Alan Burns) Stocks and radio listening, along with many other parts of American life, got hammered this spring. Unlike the stock market, however, Radio didn’t enjoy a V-shaped recovery.
How, exactly are we doing, and how can we get healthy again? We looked at Nielsen data for seven of the largest markets to see what PPM is telling us about usage trends as of the latest (July) monthly.
Driven by Covid-19’s advance, American behavior began to change in March and accelerated in April. In the seven sample markets, March 12+ AQH declined 11%; the bottom fell out in April, down 29%. The result was that April AQH was 44% lower than July. Think about that….almost half gone.
Poof.
So that’s the bad news. The good news is that AQH is coming back. The bad news is that that comeback appears to have slowed. But the good news to that is that it hasn’t slowed as much as it appears.
Another positive headline is that Radio’s cume has held up well – in July, our sample markets’ total cume was only 7% lower than July of 2020. Listeners have not abandoned radio, just used it less.
After the March/April disaster AQH in these seven markets jumped 11% in May, rose another 9% in June, but only increased 3% in July. That’s a sequence of decreasing numbers (11>9>3) which leaves us still 26% below July 2019’s AQH.
That anemic growth in July looks better, though, when you factor in seasonal effects. Part of the current deficit is a 7% decline in listening from last July to this past January – as colder weather meant less travelling, and time off around holidays contributed to less at-work usage. So the March Covid downturn started from a lower base.
More to the point is what happened last summer: radio AQH dropped 2% from May to June of 2020, and another 3% in July. That is: whereas radio listening declined 3% last July, it was up 3% this July. In that context, July’s growth was stronger than it first appeared.
Will that growth continue? How strong, and for how long? Much of the answer depends on other questions like: How many consumers have changed their habits? Will everyone return to their former workplaces? Will there be more shutdowns/lockdowns?
Radio can’t control those external factors, so we have to do a phenomenal job at the things we do command. I live in hurricane territory on the Gulf of Mexico, where builders have learned that for a house to withstand a big storm you can’t build it a little bit better – you have to build it a lot better.
Radio would do well to consider the combination of Covid and digital competition a Category 3 or 4 storm – and build its house much stronger. Among other things:
1. Do the basics really, really well: more than ever, people are seeking companionship (our
differentiation from digital), information, escape, and mood elevation. Especially mood
elevation – people are rewarding products that make them feel better. Radio can be great at all of those.
2. Get our digital act together. Digital media usage is exploding this year; even people who
had never streamed digital media learning how to do it. Our smart-speaker skills are vital,
as is our promotion of them.
3. Cut the clutter. If you own or manage a music station, make sure you listen to Spotify or
Pandora for a few hours, then turn on your radio station. That will help you understand the
consumers’ choice: is what your station provides actually worth all those commercials, sales promotions, and station promotions you ask the audience to tolerate? The companies and stations that have cut back on clutter have generally been rewarded.
Entercom President of Programming Pat Paxton points to WXRT Chicago as one example: after rigorously reducing what clutter it had, the Triple-A station rose to #2 25-54. As PD Greg Solk said, “just keep the junk off the air.” Many of Entercom’s stations have gone to the “two-minute promise.”
To summarize, July’s AQH shows that radio’s AQH recovery is slowing, but looks better in the context of seasonality. To keep that growth going, we need to build our house much stronger if we want to withstand the Covid+Digital hurricane and emerge healthy.
As I write this, my hometown is “in the cone” for its first hurricane in years. I hope my house is built well enough. How’s yours?
Alan Burns is President of Alan Burns Media and can be reached at [email protected]
