For the answer to that important question we turned to Borrell’s Vice President of Research Corey Elliot. Radio managers love political season. While the industry could always do better in terms of getting a bigger piece of the overall political advertising spending pie, there’s no doubt politics drives revenue at many radio stations. The only major downside is comps the next year. So why has Borrell jacked up its political revenue predictions for 2018? Lets find out from Elliott.
Radio Ink: Why the overall increase? What are you seeing to justify that?
Corey Elliot: Increased competition. Polls showing tighter races. PAC money starting to flow. The early contests show that this could be a brutal year in terms of competition among candidates.
Radio Ink: Why the increase in radio from $563 million to $683 million?
Corey Elliot: As you can imagine, there’s no ONE reason, but a few that compound each other. We do have more money going to radio, but let’s put it in perspective. Originally – we saw radio having a 6.6% share of all Political spending. Now it is coming out to be a 7.7%. So, just over 1% of marketshare shift. We see a decrease in originally forecast digital spending – things like Cambridge Analytica did not help matter. And we are starting to see a lot more interest/competition heating up in state-level contests in shoulder/rural areas – exactly where radio tends to do well. Competitive pricing and promise of targeted reach does not hurt either.
Radio Ink: Is there a chance it could go higher for radio?
Corey Elliot: Unlikely, but it us still in the early days.
Radio Ink: Are the specific regions of the country, races, etc radio stations should be aware there could be a lot of money coming their way?
Corey Elliot: Keep your eye on some of the “hot” House races this year. Some of the most contested are occurring in shoulder/rural counties, where radio is by far on of the dominant media. Also – runs at State Senate seats will be a healthy source of income for radio stations – responsible for about $120 million in ad spend across the U.S. And let’s not forget about all of those Municipal races. There is always a lot of them – and they add up. And we expect 15% of the ad money spent here flowing to radio. Finally, Ballot issues. Those won’t start popping up to later in the year, but when they do, there will be plenty of dollars spent “explaining” different sides to an issue.
Radio Ink: Despite negative press lately digital is still the monster.
Corey Elliot: Oh yes….. People have short memories nowadays. Although the CA debacle with Facebook certainly stung, as the political year rumbles on, it is just going to be too tantalizing to jump on Facebook and read people spouting off – or spout off one’ self. And where there are people – there shall be ads.
