The total political advertising pie in 2018 will be $8.5 billion, according to a new report from Borrell and Associates. That’s an increase of 2.5% over 2014 and over $3 billion more than the estimate for 2017. So the big question is, how does Borrell predict radio will do next year? Let’s find out.
Of the $8.5 billion spent in political advertising in 2014, radio took in 7.5% or $619.26 million. Broadcast TV took home a whopping 57.8% ($4.8 billion) of the total in 2014, while digital was less than 1% ($71 million). Fast forward to 2018. Borrell projects that radio will take in less than its share from 2014, $564 million, only 6.6% of the total $8.5 billion on the table and a decline of nearly 9% from 2014.
Broadcast TV takes a big hit, according to the Borrell report, declining to 39.5% from 57.8% in 2014. That’s a decline of 30% and a loss of over $1 billion. The big winner, thanks to Google and Facebook, is digital, jumping over 2500% from 2014. Borrell projects that $1.9 billion of political advertising will be spent in online in 2018. If that pans out, digital would go from less than 1% of the ad spend share in 2014, to more than 22% of the share.
A few other predictions from the Borrell report:
– nearly half of all political advertising in 2018 will be placed programmatically.
– due to fake news, digital ad fraud, and Russian interference, locally owned radio, TV, and newspapers will be looked upon more favorably.