Over the past five years, AM/FM radio has steadily overtaken linear television in ratings, surpassing TV for the first time in 2022 and growing in 2023. Now that gulf could become significant – and almost impossible for advertisers to ignore – with a crucial change in 2025.
The Cumulus Media/Westwood One Audio Active Group discussed new implications for radio broadcasters that will come with the reported change in listening time Nielsen needs to register a quarter-hour of listening in the 48 Portable People Meter markets.
According to initial data provided by Nielsen, shifting the current quarter-hour listening credit from five minutes to three minutes is expected to increase AM/FM radio listening by 24% in local PPM markets. For national advertisers, this means total US listening levels could rise by 10% in 2025.
This shift could significantly benefit younger demographics, with 18-34 audiences expected to grow by 28%, and 18-49 and 25-54 listeners seeing a 27% increase in average quarter-hour listening. By 2023, radio’s 18-49 ratings were already 12% higher than TV. In 2025, AM/FM radio is predicted to surpass TV by 13% in the 25-54 demographic, with radio’s ratings among 18-49s increasing by 47%.
The projected growth in radio listening will have significant implications for advertisers. By 2025, Cumulus forecasts post-buy analyses to overachieve 2024 media plans, with up to a 24% increase in audience deliveries in PPM markets. National advertisers will also benefit, with a projected 10% boost in total US deliveries, with gains to vary depending on demographic and market composition.
Media planners can expect up to a 24% increase in audience deliveries in PPM markets, while national media plans are forecast to grow by 10%. With an expected daily reach increase of 7% and weekly growth of 4%, radio’s ability to reach larger audiences will strengthen advertising effectiveness.
One more prediction for the change that could have massive implications for one of radio’s most despised problems? The new 3-minute quarter-hour credit rule would allow radio stations to introduce more frequent, shorter commercial breaks, which Nielsen’s research shows leads to better audience retention and improved marketing results.
The Audio Active Group’s full forecast is available on its site.
