Another quarter, another upward nudge. BIA Advisory Services has again revised its 2026 local advertising outlook for radio, and the driver hasn’t changed since its last update: a heated midterm election cycle continuing to funnel big dollars into local media.
BIA now projects $186.1 billion in total 2026 US local advertising revenue, an increase of $1.6 billion, or 0.9%, over the firm’s prior estimate. In April, BIA raised its 2026 outlook to $184.5 billion, also on the wings of political advertising.
For radio specifically, over-the-air revenue is projected to reach $9.79 billion, a 1.6% increase from 2025, while digital radio climbs 0.8% to $2.41 billion. Combined, radio’s over-the-air and digital revenue account for 6.5% of total local ad spending, or roughly $12.2 billion. Strip political dollars out of the equation, though, and over-the-air falls 1.3% to $9.49 billion, and digital radio drops 2.1% to $2.34 billion.
The underlying softness tracks with what BIA has been signaling for months. Last December, BIA’s Forecasting and Analyst Teams named radio’s digital extension one of the defining local-ad trends for 2026, pointing to programmatic audio, FM zone targeting, and in-car digital listening as growth areas for station groups working to offset softer over-the-air demand. In January, BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey went further, arguing that Connected TV was absorbing a growing share of local video budgets and that audio sellers would need to fit inside outcome-based, cross-platform plans rather than compete as a standalone medium.
As of the latest updates, digital channels now hold 55.7% of total local ad spending versus 44.3% for traditional media, according to BIA. Mobile remains the largest single channel at $45.6 billion, or 24.5% of the total, followed by direct mail at $38.3 billion and PC/laptop at $35.4 billion. CTV/OTT posted the sharpest growth of any channel tracked, climbing 76.3% year over year to $5.9 billion, with political spending again the primary driver.
