In its spring “Local Advertising Forecast” update for 2016 BIA/Kelsey is forecasting consistent growth in local ad revenue over the next four years, which the company says will hit a total of $172.2 billion by 2020. Growth will be driven by big increases in mobile and social advertising, strong political advertising and an improving economy. So how does radio stack up against the other media? Let’s find out.
BIA/Kelsey says by 2020 local online/interactive/digital advertising revenues will be $71.6 billion, representing 41.6 percent of total local media advertising revenues, up from 28.0 percent in 2015.
Growth in online/digital advertising revenues will be stronger than originally predicted, with a 2015-2020 CAGR of 12.8 percent. Over the same period, traditional advertising revenues will remain flat, with a CAGR of 0.0 percent.
According to the forecast, the top five media (revenues and share of market) contributing to the local media pie in 2016 are:
Direct Mail: $36.9 billion (25% share)
Local TV: $21.9 billion (15% share)
Newspapers: $17.4 billion (12% share)
Online / Interactive: $17.3 billion (12% share)
Radio: $15.4 billion (11% share)