Radio’s midterm boost is already baked into 2026, so the question is what carries local sellers into 2027. BIA Advisory Services analysts, following up on September’s radio outlook, point to digital selling, streaming, and AI fluency as the dividing line.
Last month, BIA Advisory Services updated its 2026 over-the-air radio revenue projections to $9.79 billion, up 1.6%, and digital radio revenue of $2.41 billion, up 0.8%. Excluding political, over-the-air radio falls 1.3% to $9.49 billion and digital radio falls 2.1% to $2.34 billion.
BIA projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion in 2027, roughly flat versus 2026, as about $9 billion in nonpolitical growth nearly offsets an $8.6 billion drop in political spending. The firm dissected the findings in the latest Leading Local Insights podcast.
Midterm political ad spend is on track to match or top the last presidential election, according to BIA Vice President of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele, who sees the biggest planning risk for 2027 in budgeting around it. Mele noted, “Plan 2027 on core non-political demand and put real estate, healthcare, and financial services at the top of every seller’s list.”
CTV and OTT is the fastest-growing channel in BIA’s 2030 forecast for core local business excluding political, Mele said, and sellers who keep those teams apart risk letting money fall through the cracks.
Sales forces need training in the performance, attribution, and automation terms digital buyers use, according to BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey, particularly for radio. Ducey stated, “I think first reset your digital expectations. We’ve been riding a growth curve. It will continue to grow at a slower rate as a denominator gets bigger. It’s harder to improve the numerator.”
Ducey added, “Media companies are losing half, maybe or worse, of the referred search, and that generated a lot of clickable opportunities to serve impressions that they’ve lost,” as AI answers are replacing clicks, and that is changing content strategy on owned digital properties.
Local sellers can pair digital with traditional reach through direct accounts and the ability to resell digital inventory under their own brand, Ducey said. They can also break out campaigns that platforms gate behind far larger minimums, such as $5,000 a month versus $50,000, and should pitch outcomes rather than audience.
BIA’s Mike Boland said agentic AI tools that answer inbound calls and book appointments are another, particularly for home services and other deskless categories. “Selling advertising or selling any solution to local business, you’re not selling them that ad package. You’re selling them more time with their kids.”
