Shoppers may head online, into stores, or both this holiday season, but one stop stays constant on the way there. Katz Radio Group says radio is in the car with them, and a new deck ties that in-car attention to store visits, searches, and sales.
Katz’s analysis shows the 2026 US winter holiday season could become the first to surpass $1 trillion in retail sales, with growth estimated between 4.2% from the National Retail Federation and 5.5% from the Mastercard Economics Institute. Both attribute much of the increase to higher costs and inflation rather than purchasing power. Adobe Analytics projects a record $275.1 billion in US online sales from November through December, up 6.7%.
Bain forecasts US retail sales will rise 8.75% over the Black Friday through Cyber Monday period, topping $85 billion. Adobe Analytics expects Cyber Week, the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, to drive $47.5 billion online, up 7.7%.
But shoppers are also cautious.
According to the deck, 38% plan to spend less than last year, 16% plan to spend more, and 46% expect to spend about the same. Another 71.6% say rising prices will affect their holiday spending, and 29% plan to use AI in their holiday shopping, up from 22% last year. The 2026 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey puts late November at the largest expected spend, an average of $359 per shopper, followed by early December at $330.
On the radio side, the deck cites Nielsen and Scarborough data showing 87% of adults 18 and older engage with AM/FM weekly. Nielsen daily PPM data from 2025 shows radio reached 9 in 10 of its typical audience across key demos from Thanksgiving Eve through Cyber Monday. On Thanksgiving Eve, reach among adults 35 and older ran 4% above an average day.
In the car, AM/FM accounts for 82% of ad-supported audio time among adults 18 and older, according to Edison Research’s Share of Ear for Q3 2025 through Q2 2026, as analyzed by the Westwood One Audio Active Group. Podcasts hold 8%, ad-supported SiriusXM 4%, ad-supported Spotify and Pandora 2% each, and ad-supported YouTube Music 1%.
Katz points to a RAB study showing radio ads drove a 22% lift in store traffic and a 29% average increase in online search activity across categories. Nielsen ROAS studies cited in the deck put radio’s average return on ad spend at $17 for every $1 in key holiday categories, led by grocery at $23, followed by department stores at $17, mass merchandisers at $16, and home improvement at $12.
61% of listeners are more likely to consider brands advertised on their station, 59% pay attention to station advertising, and 57% trust brands advertised there. Another 61% say they are more likely to consider a brand endorsed by a DJ or on-air personality, and 88% agree a local feel is one of radio’s primary advantages.
