Trade Tariffs and Inflation Expected to Impact 2025 Ad Spending

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    While some are bullish on the state of advertising spend during the second Trump administration, a new global forecast sees continued inflation concerns and potential trade tariffs leading to a worldwide decline in marketing budgets and revenue for radio.

    According to the 12th edition of the Global Advertising & Marketing Spending Forecast 2025-2029 from PQ Media, global advertising grew 8.7% in 2024, reaching $1.776 trillion, but growth is expected to slow in 2025, increasing by just 5.3%. The US remained the largest media market, with total ad and marketing investments increasing by 9.7% to $708.45 billion. The presidential race and competitive down-ballot elections in key states fueled record political media spending.

    The shift toward digital and alternative media remains a dominant trend, accounting for 52% of all global media spending in 2024, up from 40% in 2019. PQ Media identified smart technology marketing, streaming video, podcasting, digital out-of-home media, influencer marketing, and content marketing as the fastest-growing sectors.

    For the rest of 2025, PQ Media projects a slowdown in ad and marketing spend as brands anticipate the economic impact of higher trade tariffs and potential countermeasures from key US trading partners. However, several key trends outlined in PQ Media’s latest report suggest potential opportunities for radio sellers.

    Both online and brick-and-mortar shopping levels holding steady. This continued retail activity means advertisers will still be looking for ways to reach engaged consumers – especially in local markets.

    The report also highlights a negative shift in advertiser confidence regarding social media. With major platforms like Meta implementing relaxed content moderation policies, brands are increasingly wary of having their ads placed next to misinformation or controversial content, which could push more advertising to platforms with a high trust ranking like AM/FM.

    As others have pointed out, another key trend outlined in PQ Media’s report is the rise of Connected TV and over-the-top streaming as major beneficiaries of increased ad spending. As advertisers allocate more dollars toward digital video, radio sellers with diversified product offerings can capitalize on this growth by positioning themselves as full-service marketing partners that provide integrated solutions across audio, digital, and video platforms.

    Past 2025, the outlook gets more rosy. PQ Media CEO Patrick Quinn noted, “We expect the overall advertising and marketing sector to grow at an accelerated rate in 2026, bolstered by numerous political elections worldwide, particularly in the top 20 global markets, and we anticipate a large influx of media investments during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be tri-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico.”

    Quinn also notes that AI-driven marketing strategies played a significant role in 2024’s growth. As foreign players get involved, like in the case of China’s DeepSeek, it remains to be seen how the market will change – or remain the same.

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