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Pandora VS. Radio. Tons of Comments.



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(2/19/2011 7:29:23 PM)   Flag as inappropriate content
@ Dick Downes

What you have posited very well MAY happen at some point in the future. Your insistence that it will, and that you've seen it coming, is nothing but egocentric speculation. Personally, I prefer to keep my mental masturbation to myself, but so it goes.

- yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn
(2/18/2011 11:03:20 AM)   Flag as inappropriate content
Hello Mary Beth,

Your responses are well thought out and statistically supported. Personal experience is often misleading. We in the business are not normal. That's why we spend tens of thousands of dollars on research to aid us in making the right decisions.

At the core, we are entertainers providing a valued product for free in exchange for access by our advertisers. If the stick goes away, we are still the experts at creating and monitizing entertaining content. No matter what the final delivery system might evolve into, we live the business model.

Radio has been in evolution since the start. I hope those that can't believe in the bright future ahead will seek other careers. You're only in the way.

Evolve or move on. Your choice. The rest of us will continue building the tools using the new technologies available to thrive.

- Marketingman
(2/18/2011 10:45:17 AM)   Flag as inappropriate content
Let Me Lay it Out for You



I've been rolling this around for over 30 years now. About 10 years ago I started to see snippets of the concept in a few articles. I believe "The Jetsons" had it years ago. But to get specific with radio and WiFi, here's what's going to happen, probably within my lifetime (though they'd better be quick):



It will start with the automobile - already has.



All cars will be equipped with automatic destination-driving and accident avoidance capabilities. I don't know the mechanics, but I suspect it will involve satellites and sensors buried in the highways and mounted on signposts, mile-markers, street signs, towers and those reflective thingys that blaze in the dark.



You will enter your destination into what we now call GPS, turn on the TV, a movie, browse the internet (v2 or 3 by then), play a 3-D video game with virtual reality glasses/helmet, take a nap or even listen to what's left of some sort of audio delivery system (call it radio if you wish) while your vehicle proceeds to the destination you selected. This will be achieved at whatever speed the traffic will bear.



The automation system will monitor front, rear and sides to keep traffic moving smoothly, much like self-parking cars and back-up warning systems do now. Accidents will pretty much be a thing of the past as your vehicle will not be allowed to get too close to any other vehicle. All vehicles will have run-flat tires and other safety devices for the protection of occupants and other drivers - more on that in a minute.



At first, there will be auto-auto lanes (clever, eh?) for early adapters. You'll get a discount on your registration, title and insurance. No non-auto autos will be able to access these lanes and disrupt things.



Perhaps, at first, you'll have to take over at neighborhood side streets and manually drive the last mile or so.



Once human hands/feet touch any controls, except the entertainment system, the entertainment system will shut down. The front-seat passenger will have emergency access to the system should a problem arise with the primary driver. Takeover by the passenger, an automatically sensed flat tire, engine trouble or other calamity will engage emergency systems, notify the authorities and safely move the vehicle out of traffic lanes and onto the shoulder. Sort of like OnStar on steroids.



Eventually, once the last, old non-automated buggy is retired, all road vehicles and the lanes of all highways, byways and city streets will be so equipped; though you may still have to take her in manually down a dirt road to your favorite fishin' hole. Classic car enthusiasts will probably have an opportunity to purchase an after-market system so they can traverse the new road system.



This is not science fiction. It will happen. The first time I became aware of radar detectors and CB radio, I could see it coming. The advent of GPS, development of run-flat tires and the ever-popular-with-novelists tracking devices just locked it in. It's just a matter of time, money and mechanics. Somewhere in the bowels of the automobile industry people are working on it as I write this. It's probably a top-secret joint venture.



It will cost money, but it will save money so the insurance companies will pay for most of it - unless they go broke, because you may not need auto insurance anymore, except for theft. But even theft will be thwarted (say that three times fast).



So, what does this have to do with radio and Mary Beth's articles? Ah, radio, advertising and automatic-obiles: Yes! There'll still be advertising.



Can you imagine and accept the world I described? If so, then the next part must follow.



The competition will be even more fierce than it already is. Since a great deal of today's radio listening is in-car, imagine that car equipped as described. A "buy" in the future will include road blocks (sorry, couldn't resist) of all potential in-car media. Maybe Lew Dickey will own it all. Maybe he and Rupert Murdoch will have a duel in front of the stock exchange for control. Jerry Del Colliano can umpire (or "second" as they used to call it). However it is to be handled - handled it will be - and much differently than it is today.

(Continued below because of space limitations)

- Dick Downes
(2/18/2011 10:44:21 AM)   Flag as inappropriate content
(Continuation)
Margins will be razor thin (if you can imagine even thinner than today), in-car listeners will be able to select from so many Pandoras, XMs, iTunes, Jellis and Q-105s it will make your head spin. There'll be television, movies, Hulu, Facebook/Youtube/Google and games. Then someone will come up with something none of us have thought of yet and be commercial free for the first 90-days.



And Mary Beth will be President of the Southern California In-Car Entertainment Association.



But what about in-home? At work? Local news, weather, sports and traffic (well, we won't need that)? That's for next time. Check this space often. I'll also repeat this and address on my FB page Friday or Monday.



Dick

- Dick again
(2/18/2011 10:43:24 AM)   Flag as inappropriate content
(Originally posted this mistakenly on Part One's comments)
(continuation due to space limitations)

- Dick Downes
(2/17/2011 9:25:27 PM)   Flag as inappropriate content
Dear KD:

Lets talk about you blunt response to facts, not supositions.
Your number one: If radio has been losing market share, and it still has more then 90%, your premise is weak at best.

Re your number two. Do research on membership organizations. You will find that being a member is not a measure of the actual participation of the population. Subscriptions, clicks, etc, say very little. At least to be counted in a broadcast audience one has to spend some measured time with the media. There is no mention of how a member ever uses the service and how often. That data is more relevant, not just the number of subscriptions.

Your number 3 is valid, but you ascribe more signicance than it deserves. If you think me wrong, hop in a tenagers car and turn on the radio. They still spend more time than you think on the free stations, and the digital niche alternatives have them spending even more time with radio.

- Frank Zappala
(2/17/2011 6:32:06 PM)   Flag as inappropriate content
There are many problems with the writer's analysis.

First, let's establish that the writer's anecdotal evidence is not "fact", it 's simply one perceived side of an experience. People interpret what they want and how they want. Because one has this and utilizes that personally doesn't constitute the truth for all.

However, here's what we do know...

1.) The radio industry has been losing market share to other forms of media for many months. Satellite radio and Internet radio, social media and other platforms have taken the place for many people.

2.) The 90 or so million people our industry claims listen to radio is a fleeting at best. One, our industry doesn't have the verifiable account information that Pandora does. They have 80 million actual memberships to their club. That's one of the keys of their perceived valuation as of now. Radio just has potential and unverifiable reach numbers to support their claim. I don't know about anyone else, I rather have the dedicated memberships.

3.) Estimates in our industry say that the median age of the person who uses radio is around 42 years old. That figure seems to make sense. Potentially, there are younger generations who don't or have no desire to listen to our products. For years, we have chased the 25 to 54 year old demographic in vain and we're finally seeing the results from that. We grew old with our audiences and left potential listeners behind. On the other hand Pandora skews a little younger.

4.) Pandora and their Music Genome Project is a great example of what radio and technology should strive to be. Look at their structure and algorithms and you'd be amazed at what they've accomplished. Another big piece of their value is based on their patent. It's no mistake that Fast Company magazine - a well regarded viewer of the future of business and technology - ranks them as one of 50 best companies anywhere.

These are a few of many facts that make Pandora and attractive alternative. To call people silly names that support the investment of Pandora is simple minded and unfortunate at best. I for one see the expanding potential they represent. I'll be investing.

Unfortunately, with the news that Cumulus is in talks to buy out Citadel, the business that I love still has a few issues.

Twitter: @kdwilliams

- K.D Williams


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